AUDUSD Analysis – January-11-2024


The value of the AUDUSD has recently increased, reaching over $0.67. This rise is notable because inflation in Australia seems to be slowing down. Let’s break this down for better understanding.

Inflation measures how prices rise over time, affecting everything from groceries to housing. In November, Australia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI), a key indicator of inflation, showed a 4.3% increase compared to the same month last year. This rate is slower than October’s 4.9% rise. Interestingly, this is the smallest increase since January 2022.

Why does this matter? Lower inflation often suggests that an economy isn’t overheating. It means prices aren’t rising as quickly as before. This change was unexpected; experts had predicted a 4.4% rise. So, the actual figure coming in lower was a surprise.

Let’s talk about the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which sets the country’s interest rates. These rates are crucial because they influence borrowing costs for everything from homes to business loans. Central banks like the RBA often raise interest rates to cool down the economy when inflation is high. But the latest data suggests that Australia’s economy might not need further rate hikes. Currently, the interest rate is at 4.35%.

What’s the market’s view? Investors and analysts don’t expect the RBA to increase rates further. There’s a growing belief that the next move might be a rate cut. However, expectations for a rate cut in May have decreased to around 36%.

The Australian dollar’s rise amid lower-than-expected inflation suggests a more stable economic outlook. It reflects a balance between economic growth and maintaining price stability, which is crucial for a healthy economy.

AUDUSD Analysis - January-11-2024

AUDUSD 4-Hour Chart