Brent Crude Oil Analysis: December 29, 2023

crude oil

Reuters – Brent crude futures recently stabilized, maintaining above $77 per barrel. Yet, this stability masks an underlying trend: 2023 is set to be the first year since 2020 to witness an annual loss in Brent crude prices. This change is a critical component of our analysis on oil prices and Brent crude.

OPEC+ Cuts Fail to Boost Prices

Central to this downturn are growing concerns about the surplus in global crude supplies, alongside a deceleration in global oil demand. Contrary to expectations, geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ production cuts haven’t been sufficient to elevate oil prices. This year, Brent crude, a global oil benchmark, has seen a reduction of approximately 10%.

Oil Demand Slowdown

Oil prices experienced temporary spikes, primarily driven by OPEC+ production cuts, the conflict between Israel and Hamas, and anticipated interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve. However, these rallies were short-lived. The increasing crude production, particularly from countries outside OPEC, coupled with an uncertain demand forecast, are major factors pressuring oil prices downward.

Geopolitical Unrest: Limited Impact on Oil

December brought additional challenges to the oil market. Angola’s unexpected departure from OPEC, disruptions in the Red Sea trade due to vessel attacks, and the ongoing conflict in Gaza have all contributed to the complex scenario of crude supply trends. This intricate picture of the oil market, shaped by a blend of geopolitical and economic factors, underscores the interconnected nature of global events and their impact on oil prices and Brent crude.

Oil Demand Slowdown

Oil Demand Slowdown – US Oil 4H Chart