Reuters — In New Zealand, the stock market experienced a slight drop, losing 7.85 points, which translates to a decrease of just under 0.1%, reaching 11,132.55 by midday on Monday. This downturn marked the second consecutive day of losses. The decline was influenced by new data indicating that the country’s services sector had entered a phase of contraction in October. This followed reports from Friday that manufacturing activity experienced its most significant reduction in over three and a half years.
Anticipating Economic Updates
Investor sentiment remained low in anticipation of upcoming economic reports, including inflation data and statistics on visitor arrivals. Additionally, traders were cautiously observing the developments in coalition talks. Incoming Prime Minister Christopher Luxon mentioned that the discussions involving the National, ACT, and New Zealand First parties were proceeding constructively.
Mixed Results Across Sectors
Despite the overall dip, the declines were somewhat offset by a strong performance on Wall Street on Friday, which saw a stabilization in Treasury yields. Within New Zealand’s market, the materials and real estate sectors saw declines, while the technology and healthcare sectors experienced gains. Notably, F&C Investment’s shares increased by 1.04%, and Fisher & Palkel’s by 1.24%. On the other hand, ANZ Group and Ebos Group saw their shares fall by 0.61% and 0.54%, respectively.
Concerns in the Service Sector
The BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index, a measure of service sector activity in New Zealand, reported a decrease to 48.9 in October 2023 from a revised figure of 50.6 in September. This score is significantly lower than the long-term average of 53.5. The index showed reductions in activity and sales (47.4, down from 50.9) and new orders or business (51.9, down from 53.9). Additionally, employment levels slightly contracted (49.3, down from 50.5), and supplier deliveries remained stable (49.8, slightly up from 49.7).
Economic Outlook
Craig Ebert, a Senior Economist at BNZ, commented on the combined impact of the services and manufacturing indices, suggesting a state of economic distress. He advised caution regarding the GDP for the third quarter, especially after an unexpected rise of 0.9% in the second quarter.
Economic Impact Analysis
The described scenario reflects a challenging economic period for New Zealand. The contraction in the services sector, coupled with cautious investor sentiment and mixed sector performances, suggests a cautious economic environment. However, the resilience in some sectors and the constructive political talks may offer stability. Overall, while the immediate outlook seems challenging, the potential for strategic responses and economic adaptability could steer the economy toward recovery, indicating a neutral to slightly negative short-term impact.
